National Energy Usage Verification

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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby davidg » Thu May 24, 2018 9:02 am

Brendan wrote:a very big IF but it was what was needed for the model - to demonstrate it could never happen.

I think there is critical flaws in that assumption,

you have assumed that domestic use and industrial, commercial, and others such as public street lighting use are lumped into the same basket.

Industrial, commercial, etc are massive users of power and needs to be assessed in each area accordingly. With that in mind it drastically skews numbers in such a way to create the inaccurate result you have at the moment.

Each sector needs to be assessed accordingly, along with how critical it is for "5 days" in a properly distributed model there would be no need for 5 days in a considerable range of areas, it is a very complex model your looking at trying to simplify to a few numbers, is doing a serious disservice to storage and renewable generation.

The amount of energy used where and when must be factored in, producing power right at site or immediate vicinity has impacts that appear not to catered for, there is no where in Australia that would need batteries solely for 5 days unless that was the only way power was being provided, which is falling for the old semi-centralised model as it is ATM.

Fully distributed renewable generation and storage alters things, making it much much more complex to work out the demands at each site, community, area, suburb, state. Assuming the rare but occasional use of fossil fuel for some sort of the more extreme events allows costs to drop even more drastically, certainly in the immediate future.

I've done systems for farms for instance where the use of fossil fuel (Grid/generator or both) has dropped from 100% of power to maybe 5% of the power used and that includes not just storage, but also generation and all the ancillary equipment as well. It's not a 100% but its more than viable to make the cost you suggest not even close to realistic. 100% would still not be that dear in real life for them. #just saying
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification- sorry, can't verify

Postby Gordon-Loomberah » Thu May 24, 2018 10:20 am

David beat me to it with the inaccurate conclusions drawn due to unrealistic assumptions. It's almost verging on being anti-renewables, by (falsely) demonstrating how expensive it is going to be for everyone.

Of relevance in demonstrating David's point about the division of energy use- something I was thinking about the other day when out for a MTB ride- my $10000 worth of Lithium battery has cost me <$2000/year so far, and I expect that cost to be heading to around $1000/year (<$3/day!) by the time they need replacement. I'd estimate no more than 1 or 2% of the farm energy use is supplied by a FF generator, and I only have about 1 day of storage, ie 50% DOD or more each night is normal here, and some summer days I use energy equivalent to 2.5 days of my battery storage- around 50kWh.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Thu May 24, 2018 5:25 pm

Thank you for your feed back David and Gordon

I personally think renewable energy is fantastic and is here to stay. I believe the rate of change away from Fossil Fuels will happen much faster than most people expect. I also believe many things that we take for granted will have to change but have not been considered yet.

Yes I have grouped everything in one basket. I have assumed every plane, train, street light, car and truck is running on batteries and the cost is spread evenly between us all. Yes there are many factors to consider that are quite complex. My logic was if I went 100% with each medium, that would keep it simple and make it easier when comparing different energy storage medium.

5 DAYS
I have assumed there will be a new International Energy Agency (or similar) requirement not for 90 days (like our current fossil fuels) but only 5 days. This would apply to all energy storage medium we are comparing. The storage would be widely distributed to provide any area with 5 days worth of storage in the case of some isolating event. If people have their own storage that will be a bonus.

I do not expect there will ever be only 1 form of energy storage but this singular model just makes it easier to compare.

Have a great day and thank you for your time 8-) brendan
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby davidg » Thu May 24, 2018 10:59 pm

Brendan wrote:My logic was if I went 100% with each medium, that would keep it simple and make it easier when comparing different energy storage medium.

5 DAYS
...................This would apply to all energy storage medium we are comparing. The storage would be widely distributed to provide any area with 5 days worth of storage in the case of some isolating event.

I do not expect there will ever be only 1 form of energy storage but this singular model just makes it easier to compare.


Unfortunately that means that what you have suggested is and will be forever inherently flawed.

The existing energy system is simply not used that way. FYI while there is supposed to be policy of 90days for imported fuels it currently is far short of that being approx 23 days recently. Coal for instance is not in that mix at all, Natural Gas is not anywhere near 90 days either.

So the premise you have suggested is just totally wrong, crikey we have people on here that charge their EV on solar only right now for instance, we have others that live very nicely on Solar only with storage and don't skimp at all for power and there is no way in a fit that it costs anything like what you have suggested.

Industrial uses of power must be dealt with separately otherwise your creating something that is meaningless. I'm being harsh now because its the reality of how power is used you have chosen to ignore completely.

5 days with no input from solar at a local level in Aus is just plain nuts, you could be pretty much certain if that was the case then the electronics for the storage would have failed as well, leaving the area with no power except for those that had there own internal systems.

"tongue in cheek" >> Are you sure you don't work for the energy generators/distributors because it appears the way it's presented and apparently trying to pretend away truly distributed energy generation and storage, if that's the intent or something akin to it, then "The electricity grid 'death' spiral" will continue to be the ever looming elephant in the room. The only solution is to embrace change not attempt to deflect from it, it never works.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby MathewCox » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:39 am

I was looking exactly the same for my thesis, I'm currently studying environmental engineering and I am trying to create a solid comparative of energy consumption around the world, thanks! :) :P
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