National Energy Usage Verification

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National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Sun May 20, 2018 12:35 pm

Gday
I am preparing a presentation that includes information and some basic calculations on the national energy consumption of Australia. Is there someone on this forum that could look over the info if I post it here?

Have a great day
brendan
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Gordon-Loomberah » Sun May 20, 2018 5:57 pm

Welcome to the Energy Matters Forum Brendan :)

I'm sure there are some who can have a look over it and offer comment. What format is it in? If PDF, you'd have to put it somewhere publicly accessible and post a link to it.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Sun May 20, 2018 10:56 pm

Thank you Gordon
Please excuse me if I do not follow the correct format here. I have had trouble aligning the "=" but I think it will make sense.

I am seeking feed back on the following information I have prepared for a Presentation I will be delivering. Thank you all in advance for your time. Have a great day brendan 8-)

100% National Storage Model

Referring to a paper by the Federal Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics titled, “Energy in Australia 2014”, on P24 it is stated “Australia consumed 5884 Petajoules of energy in 2012-13, with 94 percent coming from fossil fuel sources …”

I have used this figure to perform the following calculations quantifying a cost estimate, should batteries be adopted as the sole means of energy storage in Australia.

5885 Petajoules converts to 1634 Tera Watt hours.
94% x 1634 TWh = 1536 TWh

Assuming that the fossils fuels were consumed with 30% efficiency, we get the productive conversion of,
1537 TWh x 30% = 461 TWh of productive energy consumed per year

Working out the Daily Energy Consumption we find,
DEC = 461 TWh / 365 days
Daily Energy Consumption = 1.26 TWh

Assuming, 100% battery efficiency and a national storage requirement of 5 days of energy consumption, not including onboard vehicle storage, we get,
National 5 Day Energy Storage = 1.26 TWh x 5 days
National 5 Day Energy Storage = 6.31 TWh

Assuming the use of 129 MWh Big Batteries as a source of storage and noting 1 TWh = 10^6 MWh we can work out the number of batteries required,
Number of batteries required = 6.32 x 10^6 MWh / 129 MWh
Number of batteries required = 48,945.0 Big Batteries

Assuming the cost of these batteries is $200 Million per each, we can calculate the total cost,
Total Purchase Price = 48,945 Big Batteries x $200 Million/each
Total Purchase Price = $9.8 Trillion

Paid off over 15 years the annual cost becomes,
Purchase Price per year = $9.8 Trillion / 15 years
Purchase Price per year = $652.6 Billion

Assuming a national population of 25 Million, we can work out the cost per person,
= $ 652.6 Billion / 25 Million people
5 Day Standby Energy Cost Per Person = $ 26,104 per person per year for 15 years

by Brendan Condon ©2018
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Gordon-Loomberah » Mon May 21, 2018 8:40 am

“Australia consumed 5884 Petajoules of energy in 2012-13, with 94 percent coming from fossil fuel sources …”

Is that the total of the energy used/consumed by the end user, or the total energy used that was required to produce the 5884PJ?

If the former then the

>>1537 TWh x 30% = 461 TWh of productive energy consumed per year

would be 1537/0.3 = 5123TWh of mostly unproductive fossil fuel energy consumed ;)

Then there are assumptions which many would question, such as why 5 days of battery storage are required, when clearly it is not going to be windless and heavy overcast for 5 days straight across the entire continent, plus we already have some hydroelectric and pumped stored hydroelectric generation. Also there will be gas generators for backup for quite some time yet, so the entire energy supply will never need to be supplied by batteries.

Transport is a significant part of the energy usage, but including that energy usage in your storage requirement, but saying "not including onboard vehicle storage" when you really should reduce the total requirement by the transport sector usage makes no sense to me.

Then there's the battery costing - the cost for the first one is not going to be the same as the cost per unit for thousands.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Mon May 21, 2018 11:40 am

Thank you very much for this Gordon. I cannot tell you how valuable your feed back is 8-)

5884 PJ was the total amount of energy consumed.

I assumed the fossil fuel component of this (94%) was consumed through a range of engines/devices with an average efficiency of 30%, producing 461 TWh of productive energy.

5 Days Storage
The 5 days storage was to allow for disaster/crisis events where an area is prevented from accessing or producing its own power. Many parts of QLD can be isolated for extended periods through floods and cyclones etc. Yes gas could be available for years to come - however the model I am presenting is for 100% battery storage. Considering the negative implications of a carbon free populated area without access to energy ie no fridge water food transport lighting heating/cooling ... - I thought 5 days was conservative.

Not Including On-board Vehicle Storage

I excluded on-board storage as it would be impossible to determine the collective amount actually stored in vehicles at any point in time. Any on-board storage would be on top of the 5 days reserve and would be a bonus.

Battery Pricing - reduced as production increase thousands of units

Yes good point. There is also the issue of the increasing value of Lithium as battery production ramps up. But then there is the probability of new technology to decrease production cost which seems to be expected by 2025. Remembering that the National energy consumption figure I used at the start was from 2012/13, I decided to leave the battery price as per the SA price (or the best guess I could find of it any way)

Thank you again for your feedback - please let me know what you think 8-)
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Mon May 21, 2018 12:35 pm

Researching further there are predictions of Li-ion batteries dropping as low as US $100/kWh by 2026 which is much lower than I had sourced earlier - Thank you Gordon.

I am going to assume AU S100/kWh and keep the 2012/13 National energy consumption figures and this should be conservative.

Any other feed back would be greatly appreciated

Have a great day
brendan 8-)
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Gordon-Loomberah » Mon May 21, 2018 2:51 pm

If you are ignoring transport, then surely the storage for your modelling needs to be 5 days of grid electricity supply, which according to this:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/E ... -Sheet.pdf

for 2016/17 would be 2.7TWh

Many parts of QLD can be isolated for extended periods through floods and cyclones etc.


Indeed they can, which just goes to show the value of distributed generation, and ability to island sections of the grid... and the folly of centralised generation (and storage), which I'm pleased to see we are moving away from now.

Many homes and businesses have either already installed a battery for backup purposes, or are considering doing so, there is huge interest in this now, with significant accelerations in behind the meter storage installations.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Mon May 21, 2018 8:32 pm

Thanks again Gordon
The link was great - I have printed it out and will be going through it for reference value.

Definitely including transport - it is scary when we really start to realise what would happen if the wheels stop. Millions of people would be in big trouble very quickly.

Yes distributed energy production is a much more consumer friendly model - if the production and storage costs are sustainable. I re-calculated my original numbers based on future battery prices of $100 per 129 kWh - which I believe is very conservative. This generated an end figure of $13,052 per person per year for 100% National battery energy storage.

Yes there are many batteries already in service - which fits into my model. I chose 15 years as this is about the life expectancy of batteries so the first ones will want replacing as the final round is purchased - in a continuous cycle. Basically if we went 100% batteries, the $13,000 per person per year, would be ongoing.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Gordon-Loomberah » Mon May 21, 2018 8:39 pm

Brendan wrote: Basically if we went 100% batteries, the $13,000 per person per year, would be ongoing.


I'm not sure we have a large enough font size for that "if" ;) I don't think anyone is suggesting anywhere near that much battery storage under any scenario. IMHO pumped stored hydro-electric is likely to be the main energy storage method.
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Re: National Energy Usage Verification

Postby Brendan » Mon May 21, 2018 9:55 pm

Thanks again for the feed back Gordon - it has been invaluable.

Yes a very big IF but it was what was needed for the model - to demonstrate it could never happen.

I think there will be much better options ahead

Thank you for your time 8-)
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