( I just cut and paste - the story says it all..
Will this suggest that the Govt. does not need to do ANYTHING for the Industry ?
)Origin Energy is emerging as one of the big winners in the shakeout of the rooftop solar PV market in Australia, caused by the abrupt changes to federal incentives and various state-based tariffs across the country in recent months.
Origin, which is already the largest electricity generator and the largest electricity retailer in the country, following its purchase of assets from the NSW government earlier this year, is clearly now also the largest installer of solar PV – and still growing its market share.
In the last 12 months, the company installed 55MW of rooftop solar along the eastern seaboard, generating sales of more than $300 million and capturing more than 10 per cent of the market, perhaps as much as 15 per cent.
But it’s position seems to have strengthened further in the last two months, with the company reporting that demand remained relatively strong, despite the bottom apparently falling out of the market for most solar PV installers, particularly in NSW, where many installers have gone out of business and hundreds have lost jobs.
In NSW, the industry has reported a slump of around 80 per cent in rooftop PV sales since July 1, when changes to the Solar RECs multiplier offered by the federal government took effect, adding to abrupt halt of the solar bonus scheme from the state government in April.
But that is not Origin’s experience. The power company says revenue and earnings from its solar business will continue to make strong contributions, despite the winding back of subsidies. “There is still a very healthy level of demand for rooftop PV,” CEO Grant King told Climate Spectator in an interview. “Clearly the cost of PV is coming down, so that …objective of grid parity is getting closer.”
Just two years ago, the company had installed just over 2MW of solar, but has now lifted its cumulative total to more than 70MW. AGL is now also ranked in the top five or six. The emerging strength of the retailers is a situation that has upset many in the industry, but a seemingly inevitable consequence of their market reach and financial power.
Origin is now in the unusual position of having the largest obligation to buy small-scale renewable energy certificates, the largest solar PV installation business, and an emerging solar PV manufacturing business – the Transform Solar joint venture in the US with Micron, which is building its first production line using the Sliver technology and expects to sell its panels into the Australian market later this year.
The solar PV market has proven extraordinarily attractive to householders, but because of its rapidly declining costs and fast growth, it is also one of the least understood markets, and its contribution is one of the most heavily dispute. Installers and retailers cannot agree on the value of the energy generated by solar panels exported back to the grid – either it is worth the same as coal-fired power, or the retail price, or somewhere in between.
Origin, because its business straddles both sides of the value proposition, has been largely mute on the subject of feed-in tariffs, and King remains quixotic.
“We were some of the first to say the subsidies were too generous, ridiculously generous, and that has now been understood and wound back,” King said. “We should be aiming for an industry that needs no subsidies.”
But does it need anything in the interim? “When we look at it from Australia’s perspective, we think the answer is yes. But when you look at it as a global manufacturer, you say the answer is no. I mean these industries should aim to work without subsidy."
Origin sees rooftop solar as a key part of its “retail solutions” package – which will include electric vehicles, smart meters and the roll-out of in-home displays it is conducting with Tendril – and plans the same for its 4.5 million customers, as well as tri-generation for larger customers.
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